In this week's Competitive Intelligence Update we examine research on the mortgage market, the outlook for a provides insight into the mortgage market, including preferred mortgage terms, market share, renewal risks, a potential mortgage rate war, and more.

Mortgage Market Update

Market Overview

The pace of residential mortgage debt growth was slower than usual, according to the most recent CMHC residential mortgage industry report. CMHC predicts that improved interest rates and the availability of longer amortizations could push growth in mortgage activity higher in the second half of 2024 and into 2025. The latest statistics from the Canadian Real Estate Association seem to bear this out.

The report also looks at changing mortgage term preference and market share for newly extended mortgages and outstanding mortgages as well as investment properties.

Mortgage rates

RBC analyst Darko Mihelic's recent research note suggests that a mortgage war may be brewing as competition increases to capture the coming wave of renewals. Other reasons are discussed.

Renewal risk

A significant portion of mortgages will be renewing over the next couple of years and many borrowers will experience a sizable jump in payments, even with the recent rate cuts. The CMHC report discusses renewal risks and delinquency rates as well as predictions for mortgage delinquencies into the end of 2024 and 2025. 

To read more on this issue and other research hot topics, read this week’s issue of Competitive Intelligence (CI) Update. 

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